Gold market analysis: the US index continues to hit a peak, with gold rising first and then declining

时间:2022-06-25 09:25:40 浏览:42

On Thursday (May 5), the spot gold price once rose above the $1900 mark, but then fell sharply from the high to just above $1870.

When the gold price fell sharply from the high of $1909.65 to $37, the dollar rebounded strongly to just below the 104 level, approaching a 20-year high.

The US dollar index closed at 103.56 yesterday, rising 1.01% during the day, rebounding from a low of 102.35 to a high of 103.95.

The day before, the Federal Reserve said it would take active measures to combat soaring inflation. There was an initial "sell the facts" reaction in the market on Wednesday, and the dollar fell sharply after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell rejected the option of expected interest rate hike of 75 basis points.

However, traders sold euros in the foreign exchange market, which once again pushed the dollar higher. Because weak data from Germany showed that industrial orders in March had the largest monthly decline since October last year, the crisis tension in Ukraine was dampening risk sentiment in the eurozone. With global stock markets under pressure, the dollar was subsequently boosted by safe haven buying.

In addition, investors also began to focus on the US non farm payrolls report on Friday. The non farm payrolls data is a major risk and is likely to set the tone for the next few weeks before the Fed's next interest rate decision.

The strong employment report may abnormally push the market to digest the expectation that the Federal Reserve will further tighten policy. Although the Federal Reserve currently does not consider raising interest rates by 75 basis points, this guidance is based on the following expectations: the growth trend of monthly non farm payrolls will slow down, and core inflation is stabilizing.

Given that the demand for labor in the United States remains very strong, inflation in core services is rising steadily. If the non farm payrolls report in April tomorrow is strong, it will have to provoke the market's expectation of whether to raise interest rates by 75 basis points again. In this way, it will aggravate the continued decline of gold.

Technically, gold prices may continue to decline significantly. The four hour line of the gold price obviously encountered resistance, especially the double top near 1910. Yesterday, the great Yin line entity directly broke through the support level, and one great Yin line entity directly covered the rise of six great Yang lines, which was an oversold trend. Looking at the support level below 1850, the 50 moving average obviously downward, and the closing price last night was also below 1880.

This evening, the great non-agricultural sector came under heavy attack. We should be careful of the risk of non-agricultural accidents driving gold to break down continuously. Even if it is non-agricultural, the rebound height of gold is relatively limited.