On Friday (August 5), the international gold price stabilized near the overnight high of $1,794.84 since July 5, and the rebound in the dollar index slowed the pace of gold prices. However, the deepening economic recession continued to support gold prices, and the market outlook is expected to rise to the $1812-1814 range.
At 14:58 Beijing time, spot gold fell 0.04% to US$1,790.39 per ounce; the main COMEX gold futures contract rose 0.01% to US$1,807.0 per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 105.842.
The US non-farm payrolls report for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, which is expected to further clarify the aggressive tightening plan adopted by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation. Economists expect the U.S. to add 250,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, less than the previous value.
OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley said that as the market continues to bet on peak inflation and recession, gold price performance will be more dependent on the dollar. “A weaker jobs data would support gold’s upside momentum, as that could lead to another move lower in the dollar as yields fall. Gold should continue to move towards $1,900 over the next few sessions.”
According to the latest data from the CME Group, open interest in gold futures reversed a four-session losing streak on Thursday (August 4), adding about 2,500 contracts on the day. On the other hand, volume shrank for the second straight session, dropping 870 contracts on the day. Gold prices extended their recent recovery with rising open interest. Against this backdrop, gold prices are still expected to return to the $1,800 mark.
On the hourly chart, if the price of gold rises above and stands at the $1800-1804 range, the market outlook is expected to further touch the $1812-1814 range; on the contrary, the gold price is expected to retest the support at $1774-1768.
On the daily chart, the price of gold has started an upward v-wave trend from $1,754, with the upper resistance looking at the 61.8% target at $1,801 and the 76.4% target at $1,813. The v-wave is a sub-wave of the up (i) wave that started at $1680.