Resistance Level 2: 1.0380
Resistance 1: 1.0300
Spot price: 1.0243
Support bit 1: 1.0170
Support bit 2: 1.0110
EUR/USD rose more than 1.2% to 1.0269 on Tuesday (July 19). The euro rose on reports that European Central Bank policymakers may consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points at their policy meeting on Thursday, up from the 25 basis points they hinted at in June.
Euro investors were relieved by the prospect of a faster-than-expected tightening. On Tuesday, data released by Eurostat showed that the euro zone's harmonized CPI rose by 8.6% year-on-year in June after an 8.1% year-on-year increase in May, continuing to hit a record high. The severe surge in inflation has increased investors' expectations that the European Central Bank will increase interest rates this week.
The recent fall in the dollar from its highs has also indirectly contributed to the euro's rebound. From the daily chart, the euro has pulled out the positive line for three consecutive trading days, the MACD has formed a golden cross, and the RSI has begun to rush to the equilibrium line, indicating that the euro has a strong rebound momentum.
However, it is still in the lower track of the Bollinger Band as a whole, and it is expected to form a strong resistance near the middle track of 1.03. Pay close attention to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and post-meeting statement on Thursday.
If the European Central Bank can raise interest rates by 50 basis points as expected, and maintain a high-profile attitude towards future interest rate hikes, the euro is expected to rebound higher against the dollar, with a target of 1.04-1.05 .
Resistance Level 2: 1.2180
Resistance 1: 1.2045
Spot price: 1.2016
Support bit 1: 1.1930
Support bit 2: 1.1870
In the foreign exchange market overnight, the US dollar index fell below the 1.07 mark. With the opportunity of the US dollar's high correction, the pound against the US dollar continued its recent rebound, breaking through 1.20 again on Tuesday (July 19), reaching an intraday high of 1.2045.
On Tuesday, sterling central bank governor Bailey said that the Bank of England will consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points in August to accelerate the pace of fighting inflation. In addition, he also said that the Bank of England may reduce its holdings of British government bonds, that is, to start quantitative tightening.
It seems that the Bank of England has finally figured out whether fighting inflation is the primary concern. From the 4-hour chart, the pound not only broke through the suppression of the downward trend line from 1.2310, but also returned to the top of the 4-hour 60-day moving average (1.1930). The conversion support is valid.
On the daily chart, GBP/USD has pulled out the positive line for four consecutive trading days, and is currently encountering resistance at the level near the middle rail of the Bollinger Band at 1.2045. Technical indicators have begun to turn heads from the local area, showing that the rebound has begun to increase.
If the top can break through 1.2045, further pressure will be at 1.2180, and the support below will fall at 1.1930.
Resistance Level 2: 139.38
Resistance 1: 138.60
Spot price: 138.17
Support bit 1: 138.00
Support bit 2: 137.30
In the foreign exchange market on Tuesday (July 19), the dollar/yen first fell and then rose, hitting a low of 137.38 in the electronic trading system (EBS), and then rose to above 138.00. The yield of U.S.
Treasury bonds rebounded on the same day, with the yield of two-year bonds rising to 3.246% and the yield of 10-year bonds rising to 3.038%, thus slightly stopping the trend of profit-taking for several consecutive days. Currently, Japanese importers are buying from 138.00 and exporters are selling when it rises to 139.00.
It is expected that the exchange rate will seesaw in the 137-140 range before the Fed raises interest rates at the end of this month. The fluctuation of the daily chart is limited, the stochastic indicator tends to go down, and there may be further downside correction space in the short term. Initial support is concerned with the 10-day moving average.
The 4-hour chart fluctuated in a narrow range and was still under the suppression of the MA5/10 Sicha. The hourly chart has repeatedly tested the MA100, which needs to be broken to open up further downside. The volatility range of recent concern is mainly concentrated between 139.38-137.00.